Новость обновляется
Цена биткоина пока не достигла пиковых значений. Однако рынок начинает демонстрировать признаки перекупленности, что впоследствии может обернуться существенной коррекцией, считают исследователи различных фирм.
Оптимизм Swissblock
В Swissblock обратили внимание на значения индикатора Optimal Signal от Bitcoin Vector.
Based on @bitcoinvector’s Optimal Signal, each of the last major BTC expansions has lasted 15–30 days.
We are currently on day 12 — with capital also beginning to rotate into $ETH.
This cycle appears incomplete. pic.twitter.com/iFUoaYzNjW
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) July 15, 2025
2/ @glassnode’s Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Profit remains well below the threshold reached during prior cycle tops (Jan & Apr 2024).
Market participants are not exhibiting signs of excessive profit-taking or euphoria — yet. pic.twitter.com/5kxiaMahKg
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) July 15, 2025
3/ Both @woonomic’s Speculation Index 🔴 and VWAP Liquidity 🔵 confirm that the market is not yet overheated.
Neither indicator has reached prior cycle extremes, suggesting ongoing support for higher prices. pic.twitter.com/IInMgJYaFI
— Swissblock (@swissblock__) July 15, 2025
Has $BTC topped? Not quite. In this follow-up to the recent analysis by @swissblock__, we present 5 additional data points that help map where we are in the cycle and why caution is warranted in the short term: https://t.co/uRG2RAklIl pic.twitter.com/dyx2HVsfn6
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 15, 2025
Недавний рост биткоина выше $122 000 приблизил цену к уровню, превышающему базу затрат краткосрочных держателей на одно стандартное отклонение.
The recent rally to $122k has pushed #Bitcoin close to 1 standard deviation above the short-term holder cost basis. If this momentum continues, the next key level is $136k (2 +std), a zone that has historically marked elevated profit-taking and local market peaks. pic.twitter.com/Thl6yetTrY
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 15, 2025
The recent push to a new ATH at $122k coincided with 100% of short-term holder supply being in profit. This surpasses the 88% threshold that historically marks the shift from a heated market into an overheated, high-risk euphoric phase. pic.twitter.com/pxDSsVsCvw
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 15, 2025
As price surged past $120k, the 7-day EMA of spent volume in profit by short-term holders reached 82%, well above the overheated threshold of 62%. Such spikes often occur multiple times in bull markets, but repeated signals at these levels typically precede local tops and warrant… pic.twitter.com/uRQqQ724MO
— glassnode (@glassnode) July 15, 2025
«Подобные всплески нередко сопровождают бычьи циклы, однако их повторение на таких уровнях часто указывает на приближение локальных пиков и служит сигналом к осторожности», — отметили в Glassnode.